Here’s some news that may not have reached you: Mullah Omar has been captured. Omar is a Taliban founder and leader, and a top ally of Osama bin Laden, but based on the lack of national news coverage, you might think he was just a low-level grunt. The State Department had a bounty of up to $10 million on Omar for sheltering bin Laden before, during and after 9/11. As Jed Babbin, a former Air Force officer who served as a deputy undersecretary of defense in the George H. W. Bush administration, writes, “The reported Pakistani capture of Taliban founder and overall leader Mullah Omar is potentially a game changing event in the Afghanistan war, with profound implications for the stabilization of Pakistan.”
Not only could Omar provide information that would decimate — at least temporarily — the Taliban, but he also could reveal the extent to which Iran has supported it. However, as Babbin argues, “[W]e need to get the Pakistanis to delay giving him into US custody. That is contrary to our normal instincts, but this man — taken alive and brought to any US detention facility other than Guantanamo Bay — would be Mirandized and pushed into the civilian criminal justice system where he, and his ilk, manifestly don’t belong. We would be forfeiting months of probable success in interrogating him.” Actionable intelligence is key, so we have little time to lose.
May 18, 2010 at 09:32
Actually it is the number two, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, and not Mullah Omar that was captured and that is as much as the information is given will tell. There is even doubt to if he was captured or he surrended to make a deal for Omar, more on that below.
Rumours about Omar himself come and go and it would be impossible to hide had he been. Yes the importance would be great and it would be under no doubt that the military and intell official from the US would be the part of any interogation, though it being back in the US is doubtful.
The question to what would happen probably falls into three categories, and that is assuming he is caught and does not dies trying: A) was he caught in Afghanistan, B) Pakistan or C) he gave himself up as part of some deal.
If he is caught in Afghanistan, the man will be taken out of the country to an undisclosed location, perhaps at a base such as in the centre of the Indian Ocean for long-term interrogation. Keeping him in Afghanistan would result in endless attempts to rescue him and those secret supporters would do their business as well to kill or free him.
If he is caught in Pakistan and by Pakistani forces, his presence will only polarize the already screwed-up Pakistani political situation. It has been shown there are sympathizers, pro-Talibanis will do what they can to rescue him and the Pakistani Intel system is well known to have enough support to give them the location details. He could be killed as a way to silence him and with his blessing. The problem though is that the Pakistanis would also be not so enthusiastic to hand him over to the US and would use him as some bilateral bargaining chip.
There are strong rumours that Mullah Omar is “again” in conflict with Al Qaeda and maybe willing to create a cease-fire, have his wanted status removed and force the Pakistani Taliban to stop if he helps finish-off Al Qaeda and give away Bin Laden. If it was true it is a significant bargaining chip that would totally wreck the current Afghani Government’s future. Some wonder if that is why Hamid Karzai’s bad temper has been flairing recently.
Perhaps Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar gave himself up in Karachi as a start of negotiations…. what is certain is we will not know. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/secondincommand-to-mullah-omar-captured-1901749.html talks a bit about the capture.
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